We sent AI shopping for Apple's three new launches.
Before HomeView and the first touchscreen Mac reached buyers, and a week after the iPhone Duo went on sale, we gave AI shoppers on ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude 288 briefs per product, from six buyer types, with the alternatives they would consider. Each launch won its own buyers and lost the rest.
HomeView: loved by Apple homes, ruled out by everyone else.
Apple households chose HomeView nine times in ten. Every other type of buyer ruled it out first, nine times in ten. Across the six buyer types, Google's Nest Hub was chosen most often, at a third of the price. Almost every rejection named the price; a quarter named the face recognition, a feature Apple leads with, as a privacy worry. Not one privacy-minded buyer chose HomeView.
Apple households chose HomeView nine times in ten. Every other buyer ruled it out first, nine times in ten.
parent in a busy family of four; everyone in the house uses an iPhone
USD 300
retired teacher who lives alone and uses an Android phone
USD 150
young professional sharing an apartment, careful about privacy
USD 250
smart-home enthusiast whose lights and locks already run on Apple Home
USD 400
student on a tight budget with an Android phone
USD 100
one half of a couple who talk to Alexa every day; one of you has an iPhone, the other an Android phone
USD 250
Almost every rejection named the price. A quarter named its face recognition or privacy, a feature Apple leads with.
iPhone Duo: one missing line.
Our first card left out one fact from Apple's own page: the Duo works with Apple Pencil. Simulated illustrators then almost never chose it (2 of 48 choices) and took Google's Pixel 11 Pro Fold instead. In the second version the Pencil line took the place of the water-resistance line, and illustrators chose the Duo in 30 of 48. iPhone fans moved from 50% to 69%. Parents and small-business owners, whose budgets were below its $1,999 price, did not move at all.
One missing line cost the iPhone Duo its most obvious buyers. With Apple Pencil on the card, simulated illustrators went from 4% to 63%.
Without the Pencil line
Apple iPhone Duo: a foldable phone with a 7.6-inch inner display and a 5.4-inch outer display. It runs the A20 Pro chip and has two 48 MP rear cameras. It has IP68 splash, water and dust resistance. Price: $1,999 for 256GB.
With the Pencil line
Apple iPhone Duo: a foldable phone with a 7.6-inch inner display and a 5.4-inch outer display. It runs the A20 Pro chip and has two 48 MP rear cameras. It works with Apple Pencil (USB-C). Price: $1,999 for 256GB.
Illustrators
iPhone fans
Frequent travelers
Samsung foldable owners
Parents
budget below its $1,999 priceSmall-business owners
budget below its $1,999 pricePrice was the reason in nine of ten rejections.
The touchscreen Mac: two buyers.
The first touchscreen Mac won with the video editor and the AI developer, and almost nobody else. The design student and the agency founder chose the cheaper MacBook Pro with M6. The Windows manager and the MacBook owner curious about Windows chose Microsoft's Surface Laptop Ultra. When buyers wanted to draw and write on the screen, they chose the Surface four to one.
The first touchscreen Mac won with the video editor and the AI developer, and almost nobody else. When buyers wanted to draw and write on the screen, they chose the Surface four to one.
software developer who wants to run AI models locally
USD 3,000
video editor who has always worked on a Mac
USD 3,500
design student
USD 2,000
manager whose company runs on Windows and Microsoft 365
USD 2,500
long-time MacBook owner curious about switching to Windows
USD 3,000
founder of a small creative agency
USD 2,500
When buyers wanted to draw and write on the screen
What it means.
A launch does not meet "the market". It meets buyer types, and each one decides for its own reasons. A simulation shows which types want a product, which rule it out and why, before the launch money is spent. And it shows what one missing line can cost: the iPhone Duo almost lost the illustrators it was made for. An AI that shops for a customer has only what the listing says.
How we tested.
- Four options per test, each described in the same template and length from its official US page, at list prices on 29 October 2026, shuffled for every buyer.
- Six buyer types, each with a budget, in eight situations: 288 choices per test, on the default models of ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude, without web search.
- Every buyer named one option to buy and one to rule out first, with a reason.
- Each design was fingerprinted before its run. The second iPhone Duo version was added after we found the missing Pencil line, and was fingerprinted before it ran. The Pencil line took the place of the water-resistance line, so both cards have the same length.
How to read it.
These are simulated buyers, not a survey of people, and not a sales forecast. Every share is counted within the six buyer types we chose, never across a market. Simulated buyers know only what the card says, so they react more strongly than people, who know the brands and read reviews: read which buyers react and why, not the size of the move. After launch we will compare the objections with reviews and the first sales signals.
Market Simulator, 29 October 2026.
Data